Below, the introduction to a post that I published earlier today on Healthinsurance.org
While all eyes focus on the presidential race, the ultimate fate of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) could depend on the Senate contests in the states.
Even if Mitt Romney were elected, he alone could not overturn major provisions of healthcare reform. Only Congress can pass the legislation needed to change the ACA.
Republicans are expected to maintain control of the House, but if Democrats hold the Senate, they will be able to block House bills aimed at eviscerating “Obamacare.”
Republicans are expected to maintain control of the House, but if Democrats hold the Senate, they will be able to block House bills aimed at eviscerating “Obamacare.”
What is At Stake
If Republicans take the Senate, the two chambers could pass legislation that would:
- eliminate the premium subsidies designed to make health insurance affordable for middle-income and low-income families
- bring an end to Medicaid expansion, and
- rescind the individual mandate that everyone buy insurance or pay a tax.
Under “budget reconciliation,” Republicans would need only a simple majority to pass such legislation. In the Senate, 51 votes would do it. Today, Republicans hold 47 seats.
Razor-sharp margins in many states make it impossible to predict outcomes. Polls only give us a blurry snapshot of one moment in time – and in states like Arizona, candidates have been trading leads from week to week.
Much will depend on the demographics of who turns out to vote.
What Could Happen: Three Scenarios . . .
To read the rest of this post please go to HealthInsurance.org
